These polls are just his approval ratings, right (sorry, can’t access the article), not a measure who is willing to vote for him in 2024? Yeah, people don’t approve of you backing Israel when it’s indiscriminately killing civilians and committing war crimes. Surprise, surprise. Doesn’t mean they’re going to vote for Trump over you, Joe, don’t worry.
As always:
The issue isn’t people voting for trump, it’s them not voting.
Because for some people, voting can take hours.
This is intentional because Republicans know depressed turnout is how they win. Unfortunately Dem party leadership just refuses to acknowledge that.
It’s why trump beat Hillary, and can 100% happen again in 2024. The most important job of any candidate is getting votes. And just saying: “What are you going to do, vote Republican instead?” Isn’t going to motivate enough voters to get to the polls.
The party is obsessed with stealing voters from Republicans, because that matches their preconceived notion that the democratic party needs to move to the right and gives them an excuse to do so.
Despite the fact that it’s easier to get a non voter to vote than convince a Republican to start voting D.
And Biden - who has won elections for the past 40+ years - really understands this.
Which is why he is frustrated.
We have to be honest. Things really aren’t looking good.
Let’s not fool ourselves. Trump has a large, dedicated base willing to vote for him.
If turnout is high, his chances of winning are low. But with a low turnout, his chances are high.
A potential Biden voter staying home, because of low motivation to go stand in a line for hours - that’s the Republican winning ticket.
Which is why the conflict in Israel and stalemate in Ukraine are good for Trump, it de-energizes the Democrat base.
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Normally I’d agree, but it seems like the only people who are polling less favorably than Biden are literally every other GOP primary candidate. Even beloved local candidates like De Santis are floundering on the national stage. The MAGA schism is too wide for the Republican party to recover from at this point, if you ask me. This was something that started gaining momentum under the Obama administration and can’t be easily stopped or redirected. Without Trump at the vanguard, the Republican party would be in complete disarray. Why else would they continue supporting him while he’s under so many felony indictments?
It’s not just turnout, turnout was much higher in 2020 than 2016 but even with that Trump gained 12M votes between the two. Millions of people who sat out the 2016 election looked at those four years and decided Trump deserved another go. But Biden got nearly 19M more than Hillary did, and more importantly, got those margins in the correct states to make an EC win out of it.
It’s not just turnout, turnout was much higher in 2020 than 2016
This is another area Hillary’s campaign fucked up, despite being very simple if looking at the larger picture.
The population increased like 16 million in that time.
So “turnout” when viewed as a total number makes it look like it constantly gets better. Hillary ignored that and chased beating Obama’s total votes out of pride rather than focusing on the electoral college to win.
So its best to use percentages, and 2016 was the lowest it’s been in 20 years, ironically enough, that was the other Clinton.
https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/11/politics/popular-vote-turnout-2016/index.html
In 2020 it was like 2/3s of eligible voters who voted. But it’s a lot easier to motivate people to vote for someone solely because “they’re not a Republican” when the Republican is already in office. Especially when the challenger is telling everyone they’re going to fix all the shit the Republican is breaking.
But four years later after that didn’t happen…
And I don’t know how anyone can’t forsee a decline in turnout.
And just to be safe I’ll say it again:
Republicans only win when turnout is low, so we need to focus on increasing turnout
And poll numbers show Biden most likely won’t be able to match 2020’s numbers. Republicans tho…
Not many voted for trump in 2020 but won’t in 2024.
Well, the ones who died due to not following covid protocols. ;) And the ones in jail for 1/6.
While we’re being cynical, don’t forget it only matters in swing states and down ticket races.
