I think you misunderstand me. I am not “acting like” anything is certain. I am explicitly endorsing uncertainty. One of the things I fucking hate about the internet is all the insane confidence, and groupthink around that confidence. If it later turns out he loses, a bunch of people will come out and say, “I always thought that. I don’t think anyone thought he would win from jail.” and I’ll want to scratch out my eyes.

Some definitely will never abandon him. He has a high floor. But he needs support from more than his rabid base to dominate the primaries like he has. Will moderate suburban Republicans also support him from jail? If you’re confident about predicting that, the prediction is based on no historical data because it’s unprecedented.