Absolutely yes, people will continue to trade with the US after a few years. Hell, they are still doing it today!
What’s different is the level of dependence the rest of the world will enable in the future. Their special status no longer applies; and there is no trust they will be good actors in the future.
Long term cooperation will be built in anticipation of likely irrational and volatile behaviour. Something like the integrated North American auto industry or aligning with the US as primary defence contractor or intelligence, these mistakes will be not be repeated.
There will continue to be trade, but across the world a higher priority will be given to domestic production and alternative suppliers for critical products. For example Canada had been slowly retreating from our protectionist policies on dairy — but instead I expect these to now be strengthened. I expect to see a stronger push away from reliance on the US for military equipment, semiconductors, financial and digital services, and more.
Their special status is money, a productive economy, and a massive military. Trump may damage those attributes, but I suspect the US will generally retain them.
And other countries will line up to get access to that trough. Even if governments don’t want to buddy up, the moneyed classes in those countries will agitate to get access to that market.
I expect to see a stronger push away from reliance on the US for…
During COVID we said we were going to start producing our own vaccines, pharmaceuticals, and PPE. We said we would address the crisis in Canadian healthcare. In the three-ish years since the end of lockdowns, we’ve settled back into our pre-covid rut.
Post-Trump, it will be the same. As long as the US is a huge market, we’ll eventually settle back into the NAFTA rut.
It’s not just money, it’s the realization that we are nothing to them. It’s the betrayal of seeing someone you thought was a friend stab you in the front without remorse.
So I do believe it is different this time. Perhaps history will reveal you to be correct — PP yipping about being “Americas best friend” indicates at some think the old status quo will return — but I don’t think so.
Oh, you misunderstand me.
Absolutely yes, people will continue to trade with the US after a few years. Hell, they are still doing it today!
What’s different is the level of dependence the rest of the world will enable in the future. Their special status no longer applies; and there is no trust they will be good actors in the future.
Long term cooperation will be built in anticipation of likely irrational and volatile behaviour. Something like the integrated North American auto industry or aligning with the US as primary defence contractor or intelligence, these mistakes will be not be repeated.
There will continue to be trade, but across the world a higher priority will be given to domestic production and alternative suppliers for critical products. For example Canada had been slowly retreating from our protectionist policies on dairy — but instead I expect these to now be strengthened. I expect to see a stronger push away from reliance on the US for military equipment, semiconductors, financial and digital services, and more.
Their special status is money, a productive economy, and a massive military. Trump may damage those attributes, but I suspect the US will generally retain them.
And other countries will line up to get access to that trough. Even if governments don’t want to buddy up, the moneyed classes in those countries will agitate to get access to that market.
During COVID we said we were going to start producing our own vaccines, pharmaceuticals, and PPE. We said we would address the crisis in Canadian healthcare. In the three-ish years since the end of lockdowns, we’ve settled back into our pre-covid rut.
Post-Trump, it will be the same. As long as the US is a huge market, we’ll eventually settle back into the NAFTA rut.
It’s not just money, it’s the realization that we are nothing to them. It’s the betrayal of seeing someone you thought was a friend stab you in the front without remorse.
So I do believe it is different this time. Perhaps history will reveal you to be correct — PP yipping about being “Americas best friend” indicates at some think the old status quo will return — but I don’t think so.