Why do you think there wouldn’t be an outright war with China?
They plan on invading Taiwan at some point, and we’ll probably be funding the defence there.
They’ve already got paid at that point, and with the sanctions we’re likely to slap on them we wouldn’t be buying more anyways, so why wouldn’t they just brick all the existing cars in retaliation? or use it as a threat to try to keep us from retaliating?
China holds Trillions in foreign assets in the West, they’d be kissing that all goodbye.
I’d bet on Russia getting invaded by China far sooner than Taiwan. In fact, either than the Sino-Vietnam war, the war with the Soviets is their most recent war.
Russia simply has less allies and has more of what China needs and wants, fresh water, uncontested ports and oil among many other things. They also have a (recent) historic claim to Outer Manchuria too.
As the war with Ukraine grinds soviet stockpiles down, Russia gets weaker and weaker. Taiwan on the other hand has a lot of allies and is very defensible.
Chinese philosophy and military doctrine is clear. The threats to Taiwan escalate while railways are being made towards the Russian Far East ‘for trade’.
“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”
“Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”
Invading Taiwan might be the most obvious, telegraphed invasion in history.
Why do you think there wouldn’t be an outright war with China?
They plan on invading Taiwan at some point, and we’ll probably be funding the defence there.
They’ve already got paid at that point, and with the sanctions we’re likely to slap on them we wouldn’t be buying more anyways, so why wouldn’t they just brick all the existing cars in retaliation? or use it as a threat to try to keep us from retaliating?
They’ve been planning on invading Taiwan for nearly a decade.
That conflict overall is as old as the CCP. The reason it ended was the US threatening to step in: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM4900.html
China holds Trillions in foreign assets in the West, they’d be kissing that all goodbye.
I’d bet on Russia getting invaded by China far sooner than Taiwan. In fact, either than the Sino-Vietnam war, the war with the Soviets is their most recent war.
Russia simply has less allies and has more of what China needs and wants, fresh water, uncontested ports and oil among many other things. They also have a (recent) historic claim to Outer Manchuria too.
Even Russia knows this:
https://www.ft.com/content/758ff1ca-6ac1-4188-9b61-c514638447b1
As the war with Ukraine grinds soviet stockpiles down, Russia gets weaker and weaker. Taiwan on the other hand has a lot of allies and is very defensible.
Chinese philosophy and military doctrine is clear. The threats to Taiwan escalate while railways are being made towards the Russian Far East ‘for trade’.
“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”
“Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”
Invading Taiwan might be the most obvious, telegraphed invasion in history.