Yes. But, much like us, the true “great filter” will turn out to be greed in one way or another.
I don’t think we, as a species, are ever leaving the solar system. And I don’t believe any other intelligent species would either. Exploration is high and noble, but the people who pay for it always expect a return on their investment. Finding the new world was about power, wealth and resources for those footing the bill. The exploration of the Arctic was a search for faster access to markets on the opposite side of the world.
There’s no profit in doing something “just because it’s there”.
My belief is that we’ll get into the solar system. We’ll harvest its resources. And that’s where we’ll stop. When we think about the size of the solar system, the resources available to us will effectively be infinite. One species would never use them all up before the sun expands and goes nova. It’s impossible.
So what is the return on investment to go to another star system? What’s the return on investment to making all that effort?
I think we’re in a universe that is filled with single-system species that just stay in their neighbourhood.
I think this was covered in some old school scifi, maybe Asimov or Clark? I vaguely remember one of their (non-mainline?) novels speculating that civilizations that didn’t eventually attempt interstellar travel enter a terminal decline of some sort (on a multi-thousand year scale post industrialization). I really wish I remembered who wrote this.
And if we we are able to harvest resources on system-level scale, we will most definitely attempt to send probes to the nearest systems (which are not all that far).
I think the book you are referring to should be Isaac Asimov’s End of eternity.
Oh boy what I would like to give to be able to read it again for the first time.
I actually remember most of End of Eternity reltively well, it was my first Asmov book as a kid. Read it again many times of course. Excellent and unique book.
Although for whatever reason, I can’t 100% say if that “space exploration as a global driver of advanced civilization” idea was from End of Eternity.
Yes. But, much like us, the true “great filter” will turn out to be greed in one way or another.
I don’t think we, as a species, are ever leaving the solar system. And I don’t believe any other intelligent species would either. Exploration is high and noble, but the people who pay for it always expect a return on their investment. Finding the new world was about power, wealth and resources for those footing the bill. The exploration of the Arctic was a search for faster access to markets on the opposite side of the world.
There’s no profit in doing something “just because it’s there”.
My belief is that we’ll get into the solar system. We’ll harvest its resources. And that’s where we’ll stop. When we think about the size of the solar system, the resources available to us will effectively be infinite. One species would never use them all up before the sun expands and goes nova. It’s impossible.
So what is the return on investment to go to another star system? What’s the return on investment to making all that effort?
I think we’re in a universe that is filled with single-system species that just stay in their neighbourhood.
Are we the Ferengi?
I think it’s pretty clear from current events that that is exactly who we are.
Wormholes, Warp drives, fusion drives or light printing. What else we don’t got?
I think this was covered in some old school scifi, maybe Asimov or Clark? I vaguely remember one of their (non-mainline?) novels speculating that civilizations that didn’t eventually attempt interstellar travel enter a terminal decline of some sort (on a multi-thousand year scale post industrialization). I really wish I remembered who wrote this.
And if we we are able to harvest resources on system-level scale, we will most definitely attempt to send probes to the nearest systems (which are not all that far).
I think the book you are referring to should be Isaac Asimov’s End of eternity. Oh boy what I would like to give to be able to read it again for the first time.
It may have been End of Eternity.
I actually remember most of End of Eternity reltively well, it was my first Asmov book as a kid. Read it again many times of course. Excellent and unique book.
Although for whatever reason, I can’t 100% say if that “space exploration as a global driver of advanced civilization” idea was from End of Eternity.