Policy factors aside, the cost of EVs will continue to drop, led by a decline in battery costs. Technology improvements, falling commodities prices, and a potential oversupply of EV batteries are some of the factors cited by Liz Najman, a researcher with the EV sales analysis firm Recurrent, leading to the conclusion that the upfront cost of buying an EV will be on par with the cost of a comparable gasmobile by 2026.

In a piece posted by Recurrent on November 19, Najman notes that Goldman Sachs anticipates a cost of $64 per kilowatt-hour for EV battery packs by 2030. Other leading research groups see a steeper declines. RMI, for example, anticipates that battery packs will dip to $45–$65/kWh.

Najman cites an RMI analysis showing that by 2030, the cost of replacing an EV battery will be cheaper than replacing the engine on a gasmobile. An RMI analysis puts the replacement cost at $3,375 for a 75 kilowatt-hour battery pack. In addition, EV owners can defray the cost by selling their battery into the growing second-life market.

The $3,375 price point sounds about right for a parity argument. AutoZone puts the cost of an engine replacement at $2,000–$10,000, or even more, depending on the circumstances.

For that matter, all of this talk about battery replacement may be moot. Battery replacements are rare, and they are about to get rarer. The EV battery of today is expected to last for 200,000 miles, possibly more. Most electric cars won’t need their batteries replaced at all.