A certainty.

Liberals have been in power for a decade at this point (5th-6th longest term in history depending on when exactly the election happens), and have picked up a ton of baggage, from corruption scandals (some more manufactured than others) , oil pipeline flubs that left everyone mad, blackface scandal, political interference, broken promises of electoral reform, even a divorce. They currently hang on to an extremely weak minority with the NDP. The only reason there hasn’t already been an election is that the NDP is too broke to put up a real fight.

Anyone right of centre will literally foam at the mouth at the mention of Trudeau, anyone left of centre is disappointed and disinterested. The NDP is likely to pick up seats, but they have never held power and the current leader is seen as pretty weak, they don’t stand a good chance of gaining power.

the conservative party is polling with a 20point lead right now, look at this map. Furthermore they have been taking a hard right turn over the last few years to avoid losing out to a far-right party that has emerged, the new leader poilievre is a populist and the furthest right I have ever seen a viable Canadian candidate. He’s also french speaking, which has traditionally been a strength of the liberals and weakness of the CPC. He is actively campaigning on reducing trans folks (and especially trans children) access to healthcare, ending the carbon tax, reducing immigration and has been dog whistling hard about restricting abortion.

The question is not If he takes power, but rather how quickly we can rebuild left wing power and how much can we mitigate the damage. Personally I hope Greens pick up a few seats, liberals get their shit together within a year and no-confidence Mr.PP. He mostly won’t be winning because he’s popular but rather his opponents are politically radioactive.