There were a lot of garage firms this cycle. Flooding the averages with a particular bias.
My gut feeling is also that the larger, more credible polling outfits are herding a bit and are afraid of under sampling the same voters they under sampled the last 2 elections. Though this bit remains to be seen, as I said it’s more a feeling than anything.
Edit: also to add on to my herding note. I find it odd that every projection system out there says it’s close but also makes a point to hedge further and say that a landslide either way is plausible. It just adds to my feeling of herding and general ass covering.
Edit 2: just saw the Seltzer Iowa Poll. This post is about 5 hours old at time of edit. Maybe gut was onto something
Yeah to be honest if you’re in the business of saying that it’s a) a really close race and b) could be a landslide to either side, why even bother making any comment or prediction at all lol what a waste of space
Polls are when organizations teach out to a percentage of the population (phone, Internet) to ask them their voting intentions.
Exit polls are the same thing, but are done after people have voted.
Sample size/distribution is supposed to be done in a way that reflects the voting intentions of the populace as a whole (doesn’t always work out that way).
I’m really hoping we’re seeing a surge of people who haven’t participated in polls but are voting for Harris. I know I’ve had pollsters reach out to me and I’ve brushed them off because of time, energy, whatever. But you can be sure as hell I got my ass out to vote
Wtf are the polls and why do they exist…I always hear about winning/losing before any election even happens.
Is it just made up garbage?
This year looks like there are many new polling companies that pop out of nowhere.
There were a lot of garage firms this cycle. Flooding the averages with a particular bias.
My gut feeling is also that the larger, more credible polling outfits are herding a bit and are afraid of under sampling the same voters they under sampled the last 2 elections. Though this bit remains to be seen, as I said it’s more a feeling than anything.
Edit: also to add on to my herding note. I find it odd that every projection system out there says it’s close but also makes a point to hedge further and say that a landslide either way is plausible. It just adds to my feeling of herding and general ass covering.
Edit 2: just saw the Seltzer Iowa Poll. This post is about 5 hours old at time of edit. Maybe gut was onto something
Yeah to be honest if you’re in the business of saying that it’s a) a really close race and b) could be a landslide to either side, why even bother making any comment or prediction at all lol what a waste of space
Then Ann Seltzer entered the chat. My goodness. I don’t know if she just had an outlier or not. But you cannot accuse her of herding with that one
Pop out of Russia, I bet
Polls are when organizations teach out to a percentage of the population (phone, Internet) to ask them their voting intentions.
Exit polls are the same thing, but are done after people have voted.
Sample size/distribution is supposed to be done in a way that reflects the voting intentions of the populace as a whole (doesn’t always work out that way).
I’m really hoping we’re seeing a surge of people who haven’t participated in polls but are voting for Harris. I know I’ve had pollsters reach out to me and I’ve brushed them off because of time, energy, whatever. But you can be sure as hell I got my ass out to vote
Bluntly, I can’t tell what’s a legit poll and/or a scam, so I’ve been ignoring all of them.
Ok so it’s really meaningless and just a way for media to stir up nonsense.